Wentworth – Australia 2028

Labor narrowly wins the ttp in this seat what would be interesting to see with a lot of these teal seats is if they would vote Labor without the teal.

That would depend on the Teal not running again.The Greens will preference Teal ahead of Labor.

wentowrth barely was won by labor given the redistribution and the fact thi election was highly favourable to labor. so youd think that the libs would be able to hold here if they had a good year and no ind.

My thoughts are with all of the people affected by the horrific events at Bondi Beach. Hate and violence have no place in society.

That dude who rushed in is getting free beers for the rest of his life. And a seat named after him when he dies.

Let’s be careful with what we post on this topic.

Noted. Let’s wait for the facts.

Liberals will not win teal seats anytime soon

except for the one they just won in May (Goldstein) and almost Kooyong

@Mick, Kooyong and Bradfield could not be considered safe Teal. The only Teal seats that I don’t see the Liberal Party winning on their current boundaries are Wentworth and Warringah.

Agree Pencil, those two seats (along with Denison, Kennedy and Mayo) are the only ‘safe’ independent seats.

The others are all potentially winnable for the Liberals/Coalition when their vote recovers and if they select suitable candidates.

The Liberal vote won’t recover so long as Barnaby Joyce remains in politics, the correct move woulda been to call a snap preselection and disendorse him, too late now.

@Gympie, Joyce isn’t the Liberal Party’s problem anymore now that he has defected to One Nation.

@gympie the liberals have other problems other the Joyce. Ley for one. with all this unpopular rorting of family and travel entitlements the libs should be hitting Labor where it hurts but what do we hear:

Liberals will have the choice whether or not to do deals with ON at the next election.
Any deal that helps Joyce into the Senate would be poorly received among liberal minded women voters in Bradfield, Warringah, Mackellar, Wentworth, etc.

@gympie Joyce is gonna get in. just accept that. most likely at the expense of a Liberal Senator. Probably Kovacic unless she can shaft either Sharma or Cadell into 3rd place

also im not sure that your aware of this but they run the election simultaneously so once hes in those seats are already closed for polling too. they arent winning wentowrth or warringah atm anyway.

@john _ it’s the silly season now, expensing within the guidelines but not in the spirit of them is a nothingburger.
Ley is wedged, her expensing of a trip in 2017 to the Goldie for a conference that included buying a $700,000 unit was absolute troughing.
Regards unpopularity, the storm in a teacup is being whipped up by Sky News and The Australian, which is promoting Andrew Hastie [$0 family reunion claims in the last FY]. It’s laughable.
Anyway, events have taken over and the story has disappeared.

@gympie but ley fell on her sword. Wells and Albo are trying to weather the storm. Wells needs to go as sports minister shes too giddy over getting selfies with athletes. shes compromised. and trying to justify it? i mean she effectively charged the taxpayers to go to her friends birthday party and tossed in a couple official engagements to make it look legit. Ley should not have done personal business on a taxpayer trip. though i dont think she used it to do that i think she thoguht “hey il do that while im here” but didnt consider how it would look. she probably should have made it known at least she was going to do that while she was “in the neighbourhood” those events will be front page news for a while but the story will come back.

More specific to Wentworth, I do agree that it is amongst the hardest for the Libs to win back (along with Warringah). The area has trended leftward for some time.

There are two potential boosts for Spender.
1. Millennial and Gen-Z voters not turning out for the Liberals.
2. Liberals voters switching to teal or One Nation (but not necessarily preferencing the Liberals)

If onp wins seats in either house of parliament it will.be courtesy of lnp preferences and prob will be in.their seats

mick that actully sounds half right. though they are still a chance in Hunter.

@John Now is not the time for the opposition to be attacking the government on such comparatively trivial (if normally still important) issues, compared with the absolute horror of what has just occurred.

yes but what were they doing before 6.45pm yesterday?

@John Rightfully criticising the government on it, they had like 10 SM posts on the matter and Ley outright called for Wells to step down like she herself did in 2017.

Too late for that now.

Most Coalition MPs probably realised they themselves were just as guilty tbh

Turnbull forced Ley to step down, she had tried to tough it out.
In contrast, Wells hasn’t done anything outside the rules, though it looks like she’s rubbed a few hacks at NewsCorp up the wrong way.
Good on her!

Labor close ranks whilst Liberals tend to hang their own out to dry when the chips are down

Gympie im sure she just happened to have some official engagements in Adeliade the same weekend as her friends Birthday Party

@maxim sounds like the mob

@john _ sure, she’s a minister, Adelaide is part of Australia, ministers are allowed to have friends there.
Here’s the difference: Ley was attending some LNP conference, nothing to do with being a Minister, she was only there for the day, and bought a $700,000 unit that day too.
It was too much even for Turnbull, who was hardly Malcolm Fraser when it came to sacking ministers.

Yes but don’t you think it’s awfully convenient her friend a birthday just happened to coincide with her official engagements there? No different to Ley

Much different to Ley, who had no Official Engagements that day.
Troughing isn’t a big deal, but it should include plausible deniability rather than outright cheek.
Annika is in the clear here, Michelle Rowland might be in trouble, Ley got caught and lost her job.

Wells is in the shit. It reaks of scandal. She setup those meeting to justify going to her friends bday on the taxpayers dime. And they’ll figure it out because all they have to do is figure out when she was invited to the party and when she set up the meetings. If the invitation came before the meetings were scheduled she’s done.

Agreed with Maxim, Darth Vader, and John

ABC Politics Now was reporting that prior to the tragic events on Sunday, Labor were about to announce parliamentary entitlements reforms. I’ve heard the proposal would have cut entitlements to Canberra only (i.e. no bringing your family to Thredbo), economy class and 5 times a year max. Would have been a useful wedge on the Opposition, who would have had to support something far more stringent than they would ever have asked for. Unfortunately (but rightly) this is now all forgotten.

Wondering if Allegra Spender had ever put out feelers about running after Turnbull quit?

@Gympie It’s possible. I think it’s more likely than not that she was asked to run in the 2018 by-election, but declined.

The only way the Liberals win this back is if she joins them, which I think we’d see the Teals coalesce to form a party before Allegra Spender joins the Liberals.